Global warming and nuclear winter are two different, and in some ways contrasting, risks to the
lives of the nearly 8 billion humans living on this planet. My last few posts have focused on
what we can do individually to live healthier and longer lives (See 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), and I’ll get back
to that theme next time, but today I’ll focus on differing risks to all life on this planet. I’ll keep it
short and simplistic. You can take it from there.

The dangers of global warming rush toward us as incessantly as Niagara Falls. We are informed
that a few degrees Celsius rise in global temperature will be our doom, that we must react quickly
to save the planet. (Note: from my brief look into the subject, scientific evidence is not as strong
as portrayed by the media, but here we consider the warming scenario to be completely valid.)

Effects of global warming

NASA has summarized some of the effects as follows (See here) The effects of human-caused global
warming are happening now, are irreversible on the timescale of people alive today, and will
worsen in the decades to come. This article then goes on to discuss certain effects of this
warming under the following headlines: 

Frost-free Season (and Growing Season) will Lengthen. More Droughts and Heat Waves.
Hurricanes Will Become Stronger and More Intense. Sea Level Will Rise 1-8 feet by 2100. Arctic
Likely to Become Ice-Free. Temperatures Will Continue to Rise. Change Will Continue Through
This Century and Beyond. Changes in Precipitation Patterns.

 What is nuclear winter?

Although less visible in today’s media, a 2015 article published by the American Federation
of Scientists (see here), quoted in blue below, offers a summary.

Since the early 1980s, the world has known that a large nuclear war could cause severe global
environmental effects, including dramatic cooling of surface temperatures, declines in
precipitation, and increased ultraviolet radiation. The term nuclear winter was coined
specifically to refer to cooling that result in winter-like temperatures occurring year-round.
Regardless of whether such temperatures are reached, there would be severe consequences for
humanity.

Did you catch that downdraft? . . . dramatic cooling of the surface temperatures. Would that wipe
out global warming and chill (too much) the planet?

Here is another segment from the above article: Carl Sagan . . . believed nuclear winter could
cause human extinction, in which case all members of future generations would be lost. He
argued that this made nuclear winter vastly more important than the direct effects of nuclear
war, which could, in his words, “kill ‘only’ hundreds of millions of people.”

That sounds a bit scary, but are Sagan’s arguments pertinent today? How many nuclear weapons
are around in 2022? I dug up the answer: (From here)

Countries that have Nuclear Weapons in 2022 (and How Many They Have)

Russia – 6,255 nuclear warheads
United States of America – 5,550 nuclear warheads
China – 350 nuclear warheads
France – 290 nuclear warheads
United Kingdom – 225 nuclear warheads
Pakistan – 165 nuclear warheads
India – 156 nuclear warheads
Israel – 90 nuclear warheads
North Korea – none, but material to build 40-50 nuclear warheads

Odds of warheads being used

What are the odds that this massive collection of nuclear weapons would be unleashed? At
this very moment the world is witnessing how one determined leader can systematically
launch an attack and bombard another country with conventional weaponry, the same leader
who more than once has touted his nuclear arsenal and hinted at its possible use.

Note, Iran is not in the above list, but little to no political will has been imposed on that country
during its path toward nuclear weapons. When that goal is achieved, could you guess what
targets might be favored by extremists in that country?

Evidence indicates that some of the countries listed are not led by rational individuals. Is it
possible that, before the century is out, some megalomaniac might, in a moment of pique,
demonstrate his brute force? Could an impulsive mind push a disastrous button and alter forever
human history?

Obviously this is a highly complex subject worthy of many thick treatises, but the basics
seem to be rather clear, and of vital importance. So, perhaps it would be useful for all of us to
puzzle over the question posed in the title above. Which is scarier, global warming or nuclear winter?
And what steps might be taken to ease our minds?

ADDENDUM: 9 May 2022

After reading this post, someone pointed out to me that John Kerry, President Biden’s climate
czar, warned that Russia’s war against Ukraine could distract the world from the climate change
crisis and produce “massive emissions” that will negatively impact the globe.

I think Kerry’s premonition was correct. The war certainly distracted me. But those emissions,
John, if they become nuclear, will almost certainly cool down the planet. That will please neither
of us.

I’ll quickly add that the climate czar and I are in full agreement on one important point. Mr.
Kerry said in a late February interview, “I thought we lived in a world that had said no to that
kind of activity. And I hope diplomacy will win.” Right on! John Kerry.